I do find in interesting and enjoyable to not only look forward, but also take a look back at what we’ve done in the past.  I’m going to limit my predictions to the two main MMOs I’m playing these days (LOTRO and TSW).  Before I look ahead, lets see how well (or poorly) I did predicting 2012.

I ended up not doing too badly with many of my predictions but did miss on a couple:

  • The Warden class did get some love, and post Update 9 I think they’re in a pretty darn good place
  • I thought we’d get more content in 2012, but I think we were more or less on par with 1 expansion and 3 other updates.
    • I was VERY close on the Rohan release date as I said October but it launched in September.
  • I was also really close with the Mounted Combat idea and really only missed on the mass battles part
  • We didn’t get any more classes like I said, but we also didn’t get any new session play options like the uber champ dwarves in Moria.
  • I was flat out wrong about not increasing the level cap, although the Mount system did give some semblance of more horizontal progression.
  • Overall I think I split on the store aspect as I did say no raid armor and more ways to help with alts (universal crafting tool for example) but I also thought they’d include some sort of gating mechanism to allow you to more quickly level alts.

Overall I’d put myself somewhere in the high C range or low B range if I had to grade my predictions for 2012.

Continuing forward with LOTRO, here’s what I’m predicting for 2013:

  • The current content pace will continue, no increase and no decrease
  • Only one other story (epic line) update in addition to the Expansion
    • there might be other story quests (similar to the In Your Absence line) but not tied to the Epic
  • Based on Rowan’s Producers letter we know the In Your Absence instances are getting a scaled treatment and I also expect to see a similar treatment for the Moria instances.
  • There will be another new festival (like the Farmer’s Faire) and all future festivals will share the mechanics put in place with the Yule Festival
  • As for the expansion, here’s what I’m expecting
    • September/October timeframe
    • Finishes off the Rohan landscape
    • Helm’s Deep will NOT be included
    • 10 level cap increase with some upgraded skills, just like Rohan and Isengard
      • I’m even thinking this will be the class updates Rowan talks about in the Producers letter
    • No new classes nor a PvMP zone
    • Again, the instance cluster will be separate from the expansion for release either in late 2013 or early 2014
    • There will be Hytbold 2.0 which will be bigger and more expansive then Hytbold
    • Mounts will get another 10 levels and maybe some new skills but not much else, especially not instances.

As for TSW, here’s what I’m thinking for 2013:

  • the new modified Buy to Play model will be a significant boost for the player base and Funcom’s financials
    • TSW will still be a niche game because of the difficulty and setting, but it will have significantly more players
  • The monthly update schedule will continue and I expect at least 10 issues in 2013.
  • These issues will have a mix of quest content and system wide changes
  • We’ll see another ARG event as it was such a huge success and PR boost for them
    • They’ll probably even push further on real world interactions.  The whole “call you on your cell phone thing” was very cool and I expect them to expand on that.
  • They’ll release a mobile app of some sort
    • either tied to the ARG or something like WoW and Rift have
  • We’ll see either Housing or Mounts introduced, and Joel has talked about both of these recently.  Although I did think this even before I heard him talk since they’ve done such a good job of cherry picking from other MMOs all along.
    • Check out the Beyond the Veil Podcast for more info
    • The mount discussion is around the 1 hour 8 minute mark
    • The Housing discussion is around the 1 hour 35 minute mark

In looking at my predictions, I’m probably a little down on LOTRO and a little high on TSW so the reality will probably be in the middle somewhere.  I also am specifically choosing not to talk about either game’s store as I don’t want to get too negative and there’s always the potential one of them could do something stupid.

What do you guys think of these, or do you have others that I’m missing?